August SeaPod


https://open.spotify.com/episode/1vPtA7UopVDuqQMuYXMIqn?si=CCphFNAMTOGCi4H41t8reA


JULIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

2/3 @NY- 1-3

2/4 LAA- 5-7

2/3 NY- 8-10

1/3 @TX- 12-14

3/3 @LAA- 15-17

1/3 @Oak- 19-21

1/2 Was- 23-24

3/4 Clv- 25-28


JULIO's Extention

The fallout of the Julio deal- what does it mean

The base is $120MM, actually $105MM cause it has a 15MM bonus

-This runs through 2029


Then the M's have to either pick up their option or Julio picks up his.

Now the M's option is for 8-10 years worth $200-$350MM

The guarantee grows to $320MM

OR

if the Mariners don't pick up the option in 2028, then Julio can use his player option for 5yr and $90MM, and then we get the floor of this deal of 13/$210, or he could turn the deal down and hit FA right before he turns 30.


Now, where does that leave the payroll- these numbers are before the Julio deal and increases, and what now? This is guaranteed money-

2022- $146MM

2023- $80MM +$15MM = 95MM, about $50MM to spend (Ty, Castillo, Castillo, Sewald, Swanson, Dmo arb. Carlos Santana, Mitch Haniger, Adam Frazier are FA)

2024-$70MM +$15MM =85MM, about $60MM to spend (wink is FA and will be 31. L Castillo hits FA, Haggerty entered arb)

2025- $21MM +$15MM= 36MM about $110MM to spend (Logan,cal enters arb. geno has an option but will be 34yo. D Castillo, Sewald,

2026- $12MM +$15MM = 27MM about $120MM to spend(Kirby, Murfee, Brash, Festa enters arb)

2027- JP is a FA, Haggerty is FA


For the historical context, 2008- $117MM- 9th in the MLB, 2018 $157MM, which was 11th in MLB.


NEXT MOVE

- Sign Haniger, 31, has at least three more years of being productive. With the injury history, a deal should look something close to Mark Canha- $12.6MM to Starling Marte's $15.7MM

- Extend Castillo, 29, he is getting into a pitcher's prime years, and another Robbie Ray atop this rotation wouldn't hurt us. 5/$100MM. This AAV would be in line with Rodon($21MM), Syndergaard($21MM), Gausman($21MM)


Serious question- What's 2B next year? Is it Frazier on 2yr $20MM, a 33yo Jean Segure reunion, a 32yo Kolten Wong, or a 30yo Frazer? Could it be a 29yo Trea Turner for $30MM, a 28yo Dansby for $22-25mm, or possibly Tim Anderson, who is 29yo, for $15-20?

OR

Do we stay in-house and let Haggerty, Dmo, and Toro duke it out?

OR

Do we turn to a prospect?

Kaden Polcovich(2020 3rd rd pick) who has slashed .245/.347 and posted a .719OPS and will cost nothing, 4th RD pick Jake Scheiner who has a .777OPS at AA with 16HR and 84RBI, Joe Rizzo, who has 18HR and a .785OPS at AA, Mason McCoy(2017 6th Rd pick) 15HR, 46RBI, 759OPS at AAA,


September predictions

Boyd and Trammel are to be called up.

3- @Det 2/3

3- @Clv 2/3

3- Chi Sox 2/3

3- Atl - Measuring Stick 1/3

2- SD 1/2

Then a long road trip from the 16-25

4- @LAA 3/4

3- @Oak 2/3

3- @KC 2/3

Then back home to end the season

3- Tx 2/3

3- Oak 2/3

4- Det 3/4

Total 22-12 to finish- 92-70


Some M's fun facts

- Geno is only 7K away from breaking the single-season record for K's, which Mike Cameron held in 2002

- JP has a less than 60% SB success rate

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