Mid-August/Final Predictions


Jey Young- Ball Boy Media

A little late on posting this; it was hidden in my drafts.

Division Standings as of 08/17/22

NL W L GB AL W L GB

East East

NYM 75 42 -- NYY 72 45 --

Both of these teams are virtual locks for the playoffs. Tiny flaws for either team; both added pieces at the deadline; NY has some things to figure out going into the end of the season dealing with injuries. However, they are in good shape to sustain.

ATL 72 46 3.5 TBR 62 53 9.0

PHI 65 51 9.5 TOR 61 54 10.0

MIA 52 65 23.0 BAL 61 55 10.5

WSN 39 79 14.0 BOS 58 59 14.0

Central Central

STL 64 51 -- CLE 62 55 --

Both of these teams cannot get too comfortable atop the division standings. Any complacency means they are out of the playoffs, as neither is good enough for a wildcard spot in their own respective League. STL, as a team, is likely to finish strong with just their veterans knowing how to do so, and Cleveland could streak at any moment to pull away or fall. It's going to be interesting to see. I do think the Guardians are in a spot to make the playoffs based on their pitching alone.

MIL 62 53 2.0 MIN 60 55 1.0

CHC 48 67 16.0 CHW 61 56 1.0

CIN 45 70 19.0 KCR 48 70 14.5

PIT 45 71 19.5 DET 45 74 18.0

West West

LAD 80 35 -- HOU 75 43 --

The two powerhouse teams of the MLB, never a doubt both of these teams would be here.

SDP 65 54 17.0 SEA 64 54 11.0

SFG 59 57 21.5 TEX 52 64 22.0

ARI 53 63 27.5 LAA 51 66 23.5

COL 51 67 32.5 OAK 42 75 32.5

Who is if the playoff started today

Matchups

  • ALWC

  • Cle Guardians v Toronto Blue Jays

  • Toronto in 3

  • TB Rays v Seattle Mariners

  • Mariners in 3

  • NLWC

  • STL Cardinals V SD Padres

  • Padres in 3

  • ATL Braves V Philadelphia Phillies

  • Braves in 2

  • ALDS

  • Houston Astros V (Cle or Tor)

  • Astros is 4 over either team

  • NY Yankees V (Sea or TB)

  • If it's Seattle, this is a 5 game series

  • NLDS

  • LA Dodgers V (STL or SD)

  • Dodgers over both in 4

  • NY Mets V (ATL or Phi)

  • If this is against ATL, ATL in 4

Biggest Surprise and Disappointment

  • AL Surprise

The Cleveland guardians are 100% the season's biggest surprise, alone with Baltimore. I wrote about these two teams and Seattle a few weeks before the deadline about how these are our wildcard teams and will all be in the playoffs this season.

  • NL Surprise

The turnaround in the AL East. The East looked to be 100% locked up by the Mets, and then the Braves called up Michael Harris, and things changed; everyone got going, and then the Phillies caught fire under Philly Rob and are where they are now, and its exactly, what we all hoped for coming into the season.

  • AL Disappointment

With the utter collapse of the Angels and the laughing stick, the Rangers are in the AL West. The Angels have a top 5 payroll in the MLB and two generational talents; the Rangers paid over $500MM in contracts over the winter to players to be competitive in this division. It hasn't come to light; both teams are in the manager hunt this winter and will like to have very different looks next season.

  • NL Disappointment

After winning 100+G and taking the NL West of all divisions last season, what has happened in SF? I will likely dive into what happened in SF that brought them down so far. However, they are only 5G out of the Wildcard, and the Padres haven't clicked with Soto yet and are dealing with the PR nightmare of Tatis Jr. The Brewers have great pitching, but their pen doesn't have Hader anymore. The final 45ish is going to be interesting.

Award Odds and Predictions

  • AL MVP

Aaron Judge -650, Shohei Ohtani +550, Yordon Alvarez +5000

Dark Horse: Jose Ramirez +6000

Long Shot: Vlad Jr +10000

--I got Shohei winning the award here. However, I am all in on J-Ram as he leads the Guardians into the Playoffs. Likely, it should be like the NBA template and go the best player on the best team- Aaron Judge.

  • NL MVP

Paul Goldschmidt -180, Austin Riley +750, Nolan Arendado +950

Dark Horses: Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso +1800

Long Shot: Mookie Betts +2700

--Just give it to Goldy, and let's call it there.

  • AL Cy Young

Justin Verlander -190, Dylan Cease +260, Shane McClanahan +900

Dark Horse- Shohei Ohtani +3200

Long Shot- Kevin Gausman +7000

--This is JV's award. No doubt.

  • NL Cy Young

Sandy Alcantara -650, Corbin Burnes +1000, Max Scherzer +3000

Dark Horses: Tony Gonsolin, Edwin Diaz +4000

Long Shot: Max Fried +5000

--Sandy has been in a class of his own all season long; without a doubt, he will win it.

  • AL RoY

Julio Rodriguez -300, Adley Rutschman +350, Bobby Witt Jr. +3000

Dark Horses: Jermey Pena +3000, Steven Kwan +3900

Long Shot: Jose Miranda +7000

--*takes deep breath* JULIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO- thank you.

  • NL RoY

Spencer Strider -110, Michael Harris -110

Dark Horse: Christopher Morel +9000

Long Shots: Oniel Cruz, Seiya Suzuki, Brendan Donovan +10000

--I know there is a severe bias towards a position player. However, Harris and Strider's impact is undeniable for the Braves. However, I gave it to Harris since he did the extension.

My top 12 heading into the last 45ish days of the season

SD Padres, STL Cardinals, Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, NY Yankees, NY Mets, LA Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves

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